On Thursday, April 24th, we appeared on the Market Misbehavior Podcast hosted by David Keller, CMT. There, we discussed our current outlook for gold, silver, and the U.S. stock market. We also provided some educational context for those who may have an interest in learning more about our work in technical analysis and the Elliott Wave Principle. Please enjoy the attached video presentation with our compliments.
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We’re getting a lot of questions regarding the so-called “Zweig Breadth Thrust.” Yes, our data confirms that the signal developed by Marty Zweig back in the mid-1970’s (featured in the book “Winning of Wall Street” in 1986) did trigger a buy signal. We have also verified that the signal has a 100% track record of success producing positive forward 12-month returns since 1960. But what you won’t find bullish advocates of this signal talking about on the internet is that prior to 1960, the signal has a much lower hit rate of just 45%. The bulls also won’t tell you that following the January 2, 2009 Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, the S&P 500 first plunged -26.75% lower over the subsequent two months before reaching its March 6, 2009 nadir. We expect the S&P 500 to plunge to at least SPX 3500 before the next DURABLE advance begins.
If our preferred count is correct, then minor wave (ii) should top early next week in the SPX 5563-5671 range. Once complete, a powerful “third-of-a-third” wave decline should reignite the bear market’s fuse. We expect a move to SPX 4060 before minor wave (iii) down is complete. Stay tuned…the real show is about to begin.