ALPHA INSIGHTS: Interim Bulletin - 5/17/25
What We Learned Last Week
Investors have been trading headlines since Trump took office on January 20th. The new administration has been an agent of chaos ever since. Many have argued that they are just playing the hand they’ve been dealt, but there is a right way and a wrong way to do everything. We’re having some difficulty in identifying how the administration’s approach qualifies as the right way, but time will tell. President Trump has signed into effect 151 executive orders since his second term began. The majority Republican congress has ratified exactly zero pieces of legislation over the same period. This brings into question the future effectiveness of the democratic republic model — but that’s another essay for another day.
Regardless of whether or not any of us approve or disapprove of this approach, the bond market has spoken. Since April 7th, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has rallied from a low of 3.88% to a high of 4.58%. It closed Friday at 4.44% after first challenging the recent high on Thursday. The question on most peoples minds Friday was whether or not the yield would hold below resistance or breakout to new highs next week. We think the following late-Friday bombshell news report goes along way toward answering that question: